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Exam 3: Forecasting

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Question 71

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In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of:

A)  an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor.
B)  the most recent actual value and an estimated trend value
C)  the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor.
D)  the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor.
E)  a moving average and a trend factor.

F) None of the above
G) C) and E)

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Question 72

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Suppose a three-period weighted average is being used to forecast demand. Weights for the periods are as follows: wt-3 = 0.2, wt-2 = 0.3 and wt-1 = 0.5. Demand observed in the previous three periods was as follows: At-3 = 2,200, At-2 = 1,950, At-1 = 2,050. What will be the demand forecast for period t?

A)  2,000
B)  2,095
C)  1,980
D)  2,050
E)  1,875

F) C) and E)
G) D) and E)

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Question 73

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The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollments for this academic year based on the following historical data: $\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline \text { Year } & \text { Enrollments } \\\hline \text { 5 Years ago } & 15,000 \\\hline \text { 4 Years ago } & 16,000 \\\hline 3 \text { Years ago } & 18,000 \\\hline \text { 2 Years ago } & 20,000 \\\hline \text { Last Year } & 21,000 \\\hline\end{array}$ What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called:

The dean of a school of business is forecasting total student enrollment for this year's summer session classes based on the following historical data: $\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Enrollment } \\\hline \text { Four years ago } & 2000 \\\hline \text { Three years ago } & 2200 \\\hline \text { Two years ago } & 2800 \\\hline \text { Last year } & 3000 \\\hline\end{array}$ What is this year's forecast using a three-year simple moving average?

Forecasts help managers both to plan the system itself and to provide valuable information for using the system.

The owner of Darkest Tans Unlimited in a local mall is forecasting this month's (October's) demand for the one new tanning booth based on the following historical data: $\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Month } } & \text { Number of Visits } \\\hline \text { April } & 100 \\\hline \text { May } & 140 \\\hline \text { June } & 110 \\\hline \text { July } & 150 \\\hline \text { August } & 120 \\\hline \text { September } & 160 \\\hline\end{array}$ What is the monthly rate of change (slope) of the least squares trend line for these data?

A forecast method is generally deemed to perform adequately when the errors exhibit an identifiable pattern.

Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5? $\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Year } } & \text { Attendance } \\\hline \text { Four Years ago } & 10,000 \\\hline \text { Three Years ago } & 12,000 \\\hline \text { Two Years ago } & 18,000 \\\hline \text { Last Year } & 20,000 \\\hline\end{array}$

The degree of management involvement in short-range forecasts is:

Moving average forecasting techniques do the following:

Which of the following is used for constructing a control chart?

Time-series techniques involve the identification of explanatory variables that can be used to predict future demand.

Which of the following is a potential shortcoming of using sales force opinions in demand forecasting?

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

The use of a control chart assumes that random errors are normally distributed about a mean of zero.

A forecast based on the previous forecast plus a percentage of the forecast error is:

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?